Published on: 27.02.2026 | Based on an analysis by Dr. Manuel Müller
European Parliament Seat Projection – February 2026
The February 2026 European Parliament seat projection shows a limited improvement for parts of the left-of-centre camp after months of decline. Both S&D and the Left are gaining slightly, while the Greens/EFA remain at their previous level. These changes are described as small and not sufficient to constitute a broader trend reversal.
At the same time, the largest losses are recorded by Renew Europe. The Liberal group falls to 64 seats, its lowest level since the beginning of regular seat projections in 2014. These losses result from small declines across several national parties, with few compensating gains elsewhere.
The European People’s Party (EPP) remains the largest group in the Parliament, but declines to 175 seats. Recent developments are mixed, with gains in some countries offset by losses in others, including Bulgaria, Portugal, and Romania.
The Socialists & Democrats (S&D) rise slightly to 124 seats. Gains in some member states are offset by weaker performance elsewhere, including the expectation that Bulgaria’s BSP would not pass the national threshold according to current polling. Despite this, the result represents a small improvement compared to previous projections.
The Greens/EFA remain unchanged at 37 seats, marking a stabilisation after earlier declines. The Left rises slightly to 54 seats, supported by gains in some member states despite minor losses elsewhere.
On the right, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) rise to 83 seats, approaching their earlier peak. Patriots for Europe remain unchanged at 104 seats, while the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) group declines slightly to 37.
Among non-attached and other parties, the non-attached category falls to 24 seats, while the “other” category rises to 18. These “other” parties record the strongest gains in recent weeks.
The projection highlights Bulgaria as a notable case. A possible future party linked to former president Rumen Radev, although not yet officially established and still without a formal name, is already included in national polling. It is currently placed in first position by a wide margin and is counted among the “other” parties in the projection.
The analysis further notes that if such a formation were to enter the European Parliament, it would be the largest among the “other” parties. At the same time, it remains unclear whether any existing political group would be willing to accept it.
Read the original article in full here: European Parliament seat projection (February 2026): Heavy losses for the Liberals as S&D and ECR recover